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HASN’T THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS REACHED BRAZIL YET?(i) ( Legal )
por TCF el 11/03/2009
In Nikko, Japan, a legend emerged in the eighth century AD of the Three Wise Monkeys – blind, deaf and dumb – carved over the wooden door of the Sacred Stable of the Toshogu Sanctuary. This legend makes reference to the Japanese proverb kotowaza, which, in essence, describes someone who does not want to be involved in complications.
Transposing this legend into the Brazilian scenario nowadays, in the 21st century, we see history repeat itself when President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took pride in stating, in an interview with the local press, that he does not read, watch the news on the television or listen to the radio, because, as he talks to scores of people during his work day, he gains sufficient knowledge of the Brazilian reality.
This attitude, certainly led President Lula to publicly state on numerous occasions, in October and November 2008, that the international crisis had not reached Brazil and that, if it did, it would merely have the effect of a “marolinha”, Brazilian slang meaning a small wave that does not cause any damage or consequence, as opposed to the tsumani which, he added, is occurring in the United States. Lula also said that “the crisis is Bush’s problem....”, thereby leaving the impression that to see, hear and speak are not with the President.
Nevertheless, although without the devastating effects seen in the United States, Europe and Asia, the crisis has indeed reached Brazil, with a slowdown of the economy, as the following data illustrates:
considerable drop in federal tax collections in November /2008, with a deficit of R$ 4.3 billion, considered the worst result since 1997, and which the government did not consider as a warning sign then; just to compare, in November/2007 there was a surplus of R$ 4.5 billion;
loss of 40,000 job offers in November/2007, which was refuted with optimism by Lula; yet, in December a loss of 600,000 job offers was verified, with 1/3 of the manufacturing industries set to fire, especially in the machine and agribusiness sectors; linked to the subject, it can be verified that unit labor costs in industry suffered an increase of 10.9% in November, in comparison with the same month of 2007; the aforesaid costs are the ratio between productivity and payroll expenses;
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comentario de Rasputin el 14/03/2009 12:12:34
The attitude of Lula sounds familiar to those of us who live Spain and have too often heard Mr Zapatgero bragging about how this crisis was US based and would not affect Spain. Nowadays Spain is ill prepared to confront what is coming (only Ireland and Greece are in worst shape within the EU). As for Brazil, unfortunately it will be hard hit in the near future with further deflation in the price of raw materials and the lack of availability of foreing capital. Latin America has weathered pretty well the first phase of this global crisis but will not perform the same way in the second. Only China among the developing countries will weather this second phase. Unfortunately, there might be a third one.
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